上调至买入评级。11 月份汽车销量略低于预期，主要是一些老车型表现较差，但同时我们也看到一些亮点，如帝豪销量突破2 万辆，新远景上市10 天销售2500 多辆。新远景的表现可能会超出我们之前的预期，为此我们调整了销量假设及盈利预测，我们预计14/15/16 年的销量分别为41.1 万辆/55.6 万辆/60.9 万辆， 分别调整-1.0%/7.0%/3.7%。每股盈利的预测相应调整至0.25 元/0.33 元/0.38 元，分别调整0.0%/4.5%/2.3%，由于盈利预测的调整，我们将目标价上调至4.1 港元，对应10倍的15 年的市盈率，上涨空间有34.9%，评级从长线买入上调至买入。风险来自于销量不及预期；竞争激烈，价格下滑。


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